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Research and Statistics -- DLI statistics appendix

Data sources and estimation procedure

Development and developed numbers

Indemnity claims and cost data increases or "develops" over time, because for some claims, it may take months or even years for the department to receive data, particularly payment data, to identify the claim as an indemnity claim. For this reason, the tabulated numbers are adjusted to reflect expected development in each year's number of claims after the time of tabulation. This is done using development factors derived from historical rates of growth in the number of identified indemnity claims for each injury year. For example, in the "Number of paid claims table," the developed number of indemnity claims for injury-year 2000 is 31,500 (rounded to the nearest hundred). This is equal to the tabulated number as of Oct. 1, 2002 -- 28,633 -- times the appropriate development factor -- 1.0999. The development factors for data through injury-year 2001 cover a period of 18 years, because the department database begins with injury-year 1983. Therefore, the injury-year data is currently developed to an 18-year maturity. Because the developed number for any injury year is an estimate of the ultimate number, it is always subject to revision.

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